The Skies Should be Full of Flying Cars by Now
Where is my flying car? 2025 edition. On the history and regulation of eVTOLs (electric Takeoff and Landing Vehicles).
I recently looked up in the sky and asked myself: where are the flying cars (electric Takeoff and Landing Vehicles)? VTOL jet aircraft were invented in the 1960s. 65 years ago. The first successful manned eVTOL test flight was by Marcus Leng, founder of Opener Oero (now Pivotal Aero) in 2008.1 17 years ago.
Who is depriving us of the joy of cutting our commute from 60 to 6 minutes? The answer, as some of you might expect already, is regulation. But I wanted to understand what kind of regulation and compliance exactly is the problem and how I could solve this. I want to see our skies full of eVTOLs sooner than in 10 years.
Studies show that each extra minute of commuting lowers life satisfaction, with one finding a 20-minute longer commute reduces job satisfaction as much as a 19% pay cut.
Secondly, eVTOLs have the potential to drastically increase global GDP because they accelerate trade. History shows that where you've accelerated the rate of transportation within a network (reducing the economic distance) it increases trade and thus economic growth. As Walter Isard wrote:
Distance is the great separator; transportation, the great integrator.
On my quest to understand this missed opportunity multiple people have pointed me to the book “Where Is My Flying Car?: A Memoir of Future Past” which is severely outdated as it was published in April 2018. (It was republished by Stripe Press in 2021 without updates). For perspective, Archer Aviation (ACHR:NYSE, the second most valuable eVTOL startup with $3.7B) was founded in October 2018. The book also doesn’t explain the regulatory problems faced by VTOL companies. This is my attempt at doing so.
Regulation and Compliance
Aircraft Certification
History
In 2019 the FAA planned to certify winged eVTOLs under airplane rules. However, after a long debate the FAA decided that winged eVTOLs can’t be certified as part of existing regulatory categories2.
In May 2022, the FAA designated eVTOLs as "powered-lift" vehicles, requiring them to undergo a special certification process under 14 CFR Section 21.17(b). This section in the Code of Federal Regulations empowers the FAA to establish custom airworthiness requirements for aircraft that don't fit existing categories. It states:
For special classes of aircraft, including the engines and propellers installed thereon (e.g., gliders, airships, and other nonconventional aircraft), for which airworthiness standards have not been issued…, the applicable requirements will be the portions of those other airworthiness requirements contained in Parts 23, 25, 27, 29, 31, 33, and 35 found by the FAA to be appropriate for the aircraft and applicable to a specific type design, or such airworthiness criteria as the FAA may find provide an equivalent level of safety to those parts.
In practice, this means the FAA determines certification requirements for each eVTOL on a case-by-case basis by selectively applying standards from existing aircraft categories (such as helicopters, small aircraft, and transport planes). The FAA doesn't establish a comprehensive set of fixed standards for all eVTOLs upfront; instead, they review each design individually and specify which existing requirements apply and where new criteria are needed. This ad-hoc approach introduces significant uncertainty into the certification process.
Performance-based specifications
Both agencies use performance-based specifications, instead of rigid design standards (narrow metrics and materials) that an aircraft needs to check off.
To meet performance-based standards manufacturers can propose their own Means of Compliance (MOCs). The FAA evaluates each proposal individually causing uncertainty and delays. This is a costly and bureaucratic process.
Joby Aviation reportedly spent $100 million on type certification alone, with its airworthiness criteria spanning 130 pages (covering structural, mechanical, electrical systems, cybersecurity, human factors, and noise compliance), while broader certification efforts require thousands of pages of technical documentation covering safety assessments, system designs, and operational compliance. Other companies face similar obstacles: Lilium has incurred over $1 billion in losses as it pursues FAA and EASA certification, Archer Aviation has raised $1.5 billion to fund its Midnight aircraft program, and Vertical Aerospace, while projecting a lower cost of $350 million, has delayed its timeline twice, now targeting 2026. Industry-wide estimates suggest that the average timeline for eVTOL type certification has stretched from an initially projected 3–4 years to as much as 7–8 years due to the complexity of meeting both existing and novel regulatory requirements.
Certification Process
The certification of a new aircraft requires three approvals:
Type Certification (design approval):
A certification of the type (think SKU) of aircraft. Manufacturers need this to manufacture a specific type of aircraft3.
Phase 1: The first phase is about agreeing on a set of requirements with the FAA which results in what is called a G1 issue paper. Next the applicant and the FAA agree on detailed design requirements to meet these high level safety and performance benchmarks. Finally, they plan tests for these requirements.
Phase 2: The company must prove that it is able to produce the parts for the aircraft it wants to certify and once that is done perform the planned tests.
Production Certification (manufacturing approval):
Manufacturers need to apply for a production certificate to ensure its production facilities, quality system, and organization comply with the TC.
Operational Authorities:
Beyond the aircraft, operators need approval to fly commercially, tying into pilot training and airspace rules (discussed below).
Certification Privatization
In his piece Why aviation innovation matters Eli Durado argues that the certification process should be privatized completely. He points out that in the car industry the NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) allow sophisticated car companies to self-certify that they meet regulatory requirements. As a result cars have improved drastically in the last 50 years compared to aircraft. This stagnation is evident in our aging fleets - as of April 2025, the average age of United Airlines' fleet is 15.8 years.
Environmental Protection
Additionally, the Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) under ICAO sets environmental standards for aviation, which eVTOLs must meet regarding noise and emissions. This adds another layer to the certification process, ensuring eVTOLs align with international environmental goals.
Pilot Certification
The initial 2016 plan to regulate winged eVTOLs under airplane rules would have allowed pilots to leverage existing airplane certification frameworks. However, the 2022 pivot to power-lift lacks established pilot certification standards.
In 2023, the FAA proposed Special Federal Aviation Regulation (SFAR) for powered-lift pilot certification. Under this regulation pilots would need to earn powered-lift ratings specific to each eVTOL type. Manufacturer-employed pilots would need to serve as instructors. The extensive training requirements include ground school, simulation time, and actual flight training in dual-control eVTOL with certified instructors.
Dual control means that the aircraft has duplicated controls; one for the student pilot and instructor. Manufacturers would have to build and certify entirely different variant of their aircraft solely for training. This proposal also causes a Chicken-and-Egg problem. You need certified pilots to operate, but you need a certified training aircraft to create pilots.
Finally, the proposal ignores advancements in flight simulator technology which can realistically replicate eVTOL flight characteristics and emergency scenarios reducing the need for excessive flight training.
A more practical solution would be to add a “powered-lift” type rating to existing aircraft and helicopter licenses.
In August 2024, Beta Technologies became one of the first companies to receive FAA authorization to begin eVTOL pilot training. However, this is just for manufacturer and FAA personnel, not commercial operations.
Operational & Infrastructure Requirements
Vertiport Regulation: FAA’s draft vertiport design standards, issued in September 2022, outline safety and charging requirements, but final rules are not expected until late 2025. Historical precedent—like the 4-year gap from heliport standards draft to adoption in the 1990s—suggests vertiport approvals could delay urban construction into 2026 or 2027. Companies like Joby Aviation, targeting a 2026 commercial launch, may initially rely on existing heliports, with broader networks forming by 2028-2030.
Air Traffic/Space Regulation: The powered-lift classification still lacks an urban airspace framework. The FAA released an “Airspace Blueprint for Air Taxis” in May 2023 and aims for initial integration by 2026. However, low altitude traffic management systems historically take 5–7 years post-initial rules. For example, Drone Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management (UTM) started in 2016 and matured in 2022, implying eVTOL airspace readiness by 2028-2030.
Operational Procedures: The certification allowing air carriers to operate commercial flights is called Part 135 certification. Archer is progressing toward an 2026 approval. Pilot training rules, proposed in 2023’s SFAR, need 2–3 years to finalize—similar to the 2-year timeline for new pilot ratings in the 2000s. Beta’s 2024 training start hints at small-scale ops by 2027, but widespread use awaits full standards.
Other regulation: The FAA and EASA are drafting noise regulations, aiming to finalize them by 2025-2026, which could push back eVTOL launches as companies ramp up testing to comply. The International Civil Aviation Organization’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (ICAO’s CAEP) drives environmental sustainability, enforcing noise and emissions targets for eVTOLs, but unclear battery lifecycle rules might limit scalability beyond 2026. Collision avoidance and maintenance regulations set by the FAA are also still unclear.
Loopholes and Workarounds
I came across three interesting ways to work around the certification regulation.
Public Aircraft Operations (PAO): This framework lets public services like first responder (FR) missions operate with fewer regulatory restrictions. For example, allowing rescue helicopters to land almost anywhere in an emergency. The eVTOL company Jump Aero leverages this framework to sidestep regulation and bring a first responder eVTOL to market that could save millions of lives. Pivotal is also exploring POA applications including border control.
FAA Part 103 Compliance: The FAA currently allows anyone to fly a single-seated aircraft if it’s lighter than 88 kg (194 lbs) and slower than 63 mph (100 km/h). They also can’t have a fuel capacity higher than 5 gallons (18 L), and are only allowed to be flown during daylight and over non-congested areas (they are not allowed to fly along a highway but over it), and for recreational/non-commercial purposes. Pivotal.aero designed their tilt-aircraft with simplified controls specifically to meet this existing standard. The aircraft of the Italian company Jetson (the Jetson One) would meet these requirements too. Here is an epic video of the Pivotal aircraft flying around the Golden Gate Bridge:
MOSAIC Rule: The FAA's proposed Modernization of Special Airworthiness Certification (MOSAIC) rule could enable small eVTOLs to be certified as light sport aircraft, provided they meet specific performance requirements. This could expedite regulation for smaller, personal, non-commercial models. However, it has not yet been finalized.
Military Contracts: More of a GTM strategy than a workaround but nevertheless interesting. Companies like Orb.aero (led by Thiel Fellow Alex Taylor) have secured defense contracts with the Navy. Their hybrid VTOL will be used as a decentralized infrastructure i.e., as a flying cell tower, a charging station for drones, and more:
Conclusion
It is likely that we’ll see the skies full of eVTOLs only in the beginning of the 2030s. The FAA is slow. A TC takes about 2–3 years, and it takes another year for a production certificate. The timelines of the vertiport development are a lot less clear.
I’m optimistic though that the day will come. I’d love to help make this vision a reality. If you know someone that is working on eVTOLs I’d love to talk to them and learn about their problems. I’m eager to make the vision of skies full of eVTOLs a reality. As Henry Ford said in 1940:
Mark my word: A combination airplane and motor car is coming. You may smile. But it will come.
Appendix
Batteries vs generators
From 2016 to 2018 DARPA ran a program resulting in Aurora XV-24 LightningStrike which looks strikingly similar to the famous Lilium jet. It relied on a hybrid electrical propulsion system. It had a generator (a gas-powered Rolls-Royce AE1107C turboshaft engine) which powered 24 ducted fans. Here is a simple energy comparison:
However, the generator likely emits significant noise making it less perfect for urban environments.
Global Airline Passengers growth
Humans want faster travel. The growth of global airlines passengers per year is exponential. The number of passengers in 2040 is projected to reach 10 billion. We can expect a similar growth for other forms of air travel such as eVTOLs once the regulations allow for it.
VTOL jets
VTOL (vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft were invented in the 1960s. One of the most majestic ones built in 1970 was the German Dornier Do 31. It was the only VTOL transport jet plane ever built. It could transport 39 people from SF to Palo Alto in ca 10 minutes (466 mph or 750 km/h top speed).
Historic Air Travel Deregulation
De-Regulation of air travel could cause incredibly cost savings. Historic events demonstrate this. In the 1970s, airfares in the US were regulated by the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB). It regulated flights since 1938, controlling commercial aviation schedules and prices.
But recession-inflation in the 1970s raised concerns for the government, fearing that high prices for customers in a weak economy could lead to a collapse in the airline industry.
In 1978 the Government passed a bill through US Congress that gradually eliminated the regulation of airlines. By 1983, all airlines were free of domestic CAB regulation, which meant they could set prices and effectively compete with other carriers.
A cross-country flight between Los Angeles and Boston cost $4,439 in 1941, $915.82 in 1978, $408.89 in 2015, and a mere $119.67 in 2024. And that is despite airport fees and taxes significantly increasing in recent years. For example, the typical airport fee for a ticket has risen from $1.65 in 1979 to $29.70 in 2024.
Open questions
Some questions I haven’t researched that came up after I wrote this (if you have more please add them in the comments of this article and I’ll try to answer them):
Why exactly did Lilium fail?
How will I have to fly before I can fly vertically?
What is the state of unmanned traffic management (UTM)?
Links
Relevant quote: The introduction of a new type of aircraft, however, requires a new certification basis, developed in parallel with the type certificate, and this could extend the end-to-end certification process to 4 to 8 years (and in the case of the AW609 as long as 20 years
Why aviation innovation matters by Eli Dourado
Interview of Geoff Bower (Chief Engineer at Archer) in Vertical Space Podcast (discussion about certification starts at about 33 minutes)
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EVTOL
To Read
Who did a successful test flight ~1 years prior to company founding. Source: [Redacted]
Namely, helicopters and airplane regulation. Helicopters are regulated under part 27 and part 29 of the Federal Aviation Regulations (FARs) as small and large rotorcraft, respectively. Airplanes are certified under part 23 and part 25 (large and small airplanes).
“Major” changes (that has an "appreciable effect" on the aircraft’s weight, balance, structural strength, reliability, operational characteristics, or other attributes affecting airworthiness) requires an amended TC or supplemental TC.